Natalia
Are you wondering how much Social Security benefits could rise in 2026? The latest projections suggest a modest Cost‑of‑Living Adjustment (COLA) increase — but will it keep pace with rising expenses?
In this article, we explore the 2026 COLA forecasts, expert insights, and how Medicare costs may offset any gain. We’ll also summarize key data in an easy-to-read table.
What Is COLA and How Is It Calculated?
The COLA ensures Social Security payments reflect inflation changes. It’s determined by comparing the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W) over the third quarter—July, August, and September—to the same period the previous year.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) announces the final adjustment every October, with changes taking effect in January.
Forecasts: How Much Will the 2026 COLA Be?
Experts generally foresee a COLA of around 2.7%:
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has raised its forecast to 2.7%, up from 2.6% earlier in the year .
- Kiplinger and other outlets also reflect that 2.7% estimate
- Some projections remain more conservative, ranging between 2.2% and 2.3%, citing easing inflation and economic volatility.
- Notably, CBS News aligns with the 2.7% forecast, based on TSCL and AARP data .
What Does This Mean for Your Benefits?
Based on an average monthly Social Security check of $2,006.69 (July 2025 figure), a 2.7% increase translates to approximately $54.18 more per month, or about $650 annually .
Those forecasts may still fluctuate before the official October announcement.
How Medicare Part B Affects Your NET Gain
Even with a COLA boost, rising Medicare Part B premiums may shave off nearly 40% of the gain:
- The monthly Part B premium is projected to increase by 11.6%, reaching around $206.50 in 2026.
- The deductible is also expected to climb from $257 to $288.
This could significantly diminish the effective boost from the COLA.
2026 COLA, Benefit Increase & Medicare Impact
| Category | Projected Value (2026) |
|---|---|
| COLA Forecast | 2.7% |
| Average Monthly Benefit Increase | $54.18 |
| Average Annual Benefit Increase | $650.16 |
| Projected Medicare Part B Premium | $206.50/month (up 11.6%) |
| Medicare Deductible (Part B) | $288 (up from $257) |
| Estimated Portion Offset by Medicare | ~40% of COLA gain |
Why the COLA May Fall Short for Retirees
Financial analysts and older Americans warn that, despite the 2.7% increase, it may not fully offset rising costs in essentials like housing, groceries, transportation, and healthcare:
- A survey shows many retirees are cutting back on groceries and medical care expenses—even with COLA in place.
- Some economists stress that COLA calculations don’t accurately reflect the true inflation older adults face.
- Additional economic pressures, such as tariffs, could drive inflation higher—challenging the adequacy of this projected COLA .
The 2026 COLA is shaping up to be a modest 2.7%, delivering an approximate $54 monthly increase for the average retiree. However, the impact is undercut by surging Medicare Part B premiums, possibly erasing nearly 40% of that gain.
For many retirees, especially those on tight budgets, this will still tarnish purchasing power. While COLA offers some relief, comprehensive retirement planning and cost-management strategies remain vital.
FAQs
When will the official 2026 COLA be announced?
The SSA will release the official COLA in October 2025, based on inflation data from July to September 2025.
Will Medicare increases completely offset the COLA?
Not necessarily fully—but with Part B premiums rising around 11.6%, they could consume about 40% of the COLA increase, reducing net benefit gains.
Could COLA forecasts change before October?
Yes. Forecasts fluctuate as new data is released; TSCL has already revised its estimate upward over recent months.