Location: Hawaiian Islands
How much rain, and where, will the Hawaiian Islands receive in the future?
“Downscaling” global climate models to accurately reflect local climate is a new science and the best methods are still being determined. This project uses a statistical downscaling approach (as opposed to the dynamical modeling being used in another project) to project rainfall for the state of Hawai‘i during the 21st century. Using the new IPCC scenarios for mid-century and late-century time periods, this project estimates the seasonal mean rainfall anomalies and found that leeward areas will receive much less rainfall in the future.