Future Rainfall Projections for Hawai‘i

Completion date December 31, 2012
Downscaled Hawaii_ Oliver Elison Timm
(Credit: Figure courtesy of Oliver Elison Timm, PICCC Final Report)

Location: Hawaiian Islands

How much rain, and where, will the Hawaiian Islands receive in the future?

“Downscaling” global climate models to accurately reflect local climate is a new science and the best methods are still being determined. This project uses a statistical downscaling approach (as opposed to the dynamical modeling being used in another project) to project rainfall for the state of Hawai’i during the 21st century. Using the new IPCC scenarios for mid-century and late-century time periods, this project estimates the seasonal mean rainfall anomalies and found that leeward areas will receive much less rainfall in the future.

Project Partners:

International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Manoa

Asia-Pacific Data Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Manoa

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

NOAA

University of Colorado, Boulder